Doomed to Fail | The daily mail

Recently, the tone of the US government towards Iran has become a bit more moderate: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Photo: dpa

US President Donald Trump proclaimed a "maximum pressure" approach in Iran. The Islamic Republic must be strategically confined with a comprehensive sanctions regime and the establishment of a military threat in the Persian Gulf, before being drawn to the negotiating table. This approach marks a turnaround in the second term of US President Barack Obama, as his government signed the nuclear deal with Iran under the auspices of Foreign Affairs Minister and negotiator John Kerry, as well as the United States. with E3 / EU + 3 countries.

This agreement was a major step forward as it resulted in a decade of conflict brooding in the Middle East through diplomatic negotiations. Iran has agreed to reduce the scope of its nuclear program while increasing its transparency through a thorough inspection program of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In return, the Islamic Republic had been promised the lifting of sanctions and the resumption of the Iranian economy on the international commercial market.

"The US authorities responsible
complicate by unclear regulations
even the sale of medicines and food "
Adnan Tabatabai, political scientist

However, this product of the agreement has been denied to Tehran so far. And it seems that little will change. The United States withdrew from the agreement on May 8, 2018, without any legal basis, with the IAEA having stated in more than a dozen reports that Tehran was complying with its obligations under the Plan. Common global action. The reintroduction of American sanctions has since made all trade with Iran punishable, thus making it impossible for the Iranian economy to normalize on the world market. Responsible US authorities complicate the sale of medicines and food due to unclear regulations. Iranian social media are currently filming a video of a mother complaining on Iranian television that because of sanctions, she can not renew her little boy's prosthetic leg and therefore can not walk his child. The goal of the US government is to force Iran to a new agreement with the help of "maximum pressures".

Negative balance of the policy of isolation

Washington's obligatory diplomacy is by no means new. It was rather the rule in the forty years of history of the Islamic Republic of Iran until the early negotiations on nuclear power in 2013. Performance? Iran has expanded its influence in the Middle East with state and non-state allies, developed a ballistic missile program, connected 19,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges, and supported geopolitically Iraq after the US invasion. . Tehran will experience a surge in refining Iran's policy of isolation in this form. The threat of Iran to gradually abandon the nuclear agreement is proof. In addition, Iran has also revealed its great deterrence potential in the region. Meanwhile, the tone of Washington has somewhat calmed down. Donald Trump said during his state visit to Tokyo that the United States was not pursuing any "regime change" policies. His Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said he was ready to talk to Tehran without preconditions.

This temporary reversal may have been the result of numerous mediation attempts by Switzerland, Iraq, Oman, Qatar and Japan. Obama started talking to Tehran because he recognized Iran's right to uranium enrichment and, in his speech, met with his Iranian counterparts on a footing. ;equality.

This seems unthinkable with the current US administration. And yet, recent statements by Donald Trump suggest that it has been recognized how "maximum pressure" policy would be ineffective.

The author is a political scientist and director of the CARPO research center.

"Is Trump's Iranian policy fair?": A contribution by political scientist Stephan Grigat appeared on this issue in the last issue.